Given Facebook has more than 600 million users, the title of this blog post might be puzzling. How can anyone question the future of a service with so many users? In other words, Facebook is too big to fail.
Or is it?
Nothing lasts forever, including popular social media services. It could be argued social media services have a bigger challenge sticking around because social media users are fickle, not terribly loyal, and prone to quickly jump on something newer, sexier and shinier.One minute you have the hottest club in town, the next you’re wondering why the joint is empty.
It is important to remember that MySpace dominated the social networking market not that long ago, while Friendster was the leading player in the early days of social networking.
The uncertain future of Facebook was nicely encapsulated in an opinion piece by Douglas Rushkoff, who suggested that:
“….social media is itself as temporary as any social gathering, nightclub or party. It’s the people that matter, not the venue. So when the trend leaders of one social niche or another decide the place everyone is socializing has lost its luster or, more important, its exclusivity, they move on to the next one, taking their followers with them. (Facebook’s successor will no doubt provide an easy “migration utility” through which you can bring all your so-called friends with you, if you even want to.)
For people willing to consider the idea Facebook is vulnerable to becoming less popular, here’s a theory: the more services that Facebook launches to embrace more people, the bigger threat is creates to driving people away.
This theory works like this: As Facebook drives to add more people, the strategic path being pursued is adding more services such as location-based services (Places), e-mail and social commerce.
The upside is it gives users more options and services. The downside is it makes Facebook more cluttered and less focused on its core mission of being a place that lets people connect with family and friends. In other words, the more Facebook attempts to add more features, the further away it gets from its core raison d’etre.
The danger facing Facebook is it becomes so multi-faceted that people start to have trouble figuring out what do with it. This could create an opportunity for a new social network to create a service that has less frills but drives the core features that users really want. There would be fewer frills but that would be okay.
Admittedly, this theory might sound far-fetched given Facebook added 250 million users in 2010, and could add another 200 million 2011. Does this make Facebook invincible to something new and more interesting? In many ways, it does because size does matter and provides a huge competitive barrier to entry.
On the other hand, the social media landscape has shown itself to be fluid and dynamic. Companies that have dominated niches have seen their fortunes quickly change as new players come on the scene. To dismiss the idea of Facebook facing the same fate may seem like a remote possibility, it’s not impossible.
Tags: facebook, myspace, Social Media
I’ve been wondering myself about the fate of Facebook. Especially liked, “So when the trend leaders of one social niche or another decide the place everyone is socializing has lost its luster or, more important, its exclusivity, they move on to the next one, taking their followers with them.” It’s like a company who loses a sales person and that person takes their book of business or client list with them. It’s about the relationships that sales person has created on behalf of the company. When they leave, the clients leave because they are loyal to the person, not the company.
I guess we’ll see whether Facebook has real staying power. My humble opinion is that LinkedIn and Twitter will outlast Facebook. What do you think?
Michael,
Once the “cool kids” decide something isn’t cool anymore, I think anything can happen…and happen quickly. Thanks for the comment!
Mark
Good insight into the future of Facebook. Although I find that with more features it could make the social network even ‘stickier’. If I can do everything I want to in one place, why bother going anywhere else? Which can quickly lead to people being very dependent on the one site.
And I agree that making the site too cluttered could be a problem, I think they have proven that their design capabilities are some of the best in the world. If you think about how much the site has added in the last couple of years, I personally don’t find it more difficult to use or navigate.
No one thought the big car companies were vulnerable or CompuServe or the Roman Empire. I don’t know how long Facebook will be with us, but it’s not forever.
Every one thought aol chat rooms were the poo back in the day too.
It’s a very interesting post. I agree that Facebook’s permanence or relevance are not a certainty. Friendster, Bebo, and MySpace probably have thoughts to share on that.
Facebook was not conceived with a business model for sustainability in mind. It was built to share pictures amongst students at one school and spread from school to school based on word of mouth. It was only after it showed signs of promise and growth that a business model that would generate revenue was retroactively applied. It’s ironic that LinkedIn, a social network designed with a business model from inception, is not valued higher.
It will certainly be interesting to see what happens.
Andrew,
You raised an interesting point about other popular social networks that have been popular and then declined. Nothing last forever so it will be definitely interesting to see if Facebook can sustain/maintain its momentum in ’11.
Mark
Innovation is the key. As with any product, if it ceases to offer anything new, the customer will shift to a new product or brand. It is important that product should be sensitive of the changing needs of their target market.
I’m not a big Facebook user, but I see how easely people get addicted to it. I have friends who are constantly updating their status for no significant reason at all. Facebook might exist for longer than other ‘hot’ sites just because of this addiction. It’s always hard to break any habbits.