This Sunday evening millions of people around the world will tune in to watch the 87th Annual Academy Awards, more commonly known as The Oscars.
Movies are a big part of a lot of people’s lives. They love to see good movies, but then they also love to discuss them. And we’ve seen a lot of discussion about this year’s Best Picture nominations happening in social media.
So, we decided to use MAP, our social media monitoring and analytics software, to see if we could predict which film is going to win Best Picture this Sunday based on social media chatter over the past year. Here’s what we found:
While all 8 of the nominated films were discussed quite a bit through social media, Birdman was by far the one that came up the most in social media. In fact, when we look at the share of voice pie chart below we see that Birdman owned a full quarter of the conversation around all 8 movies. American Sniper was a close second and owned 21% of the conversation, while Selma came in third with 20%. Of all 8 movies, The Theory of Everything was talked about the least through social channels, but that doesn’t necessarily make it a worse movie.
What’s interesting is that when we broke down the mentions of these movies by networks we found that Selma was actually the most talked about movie through blogs, forums and online news outlets. However, Twitter produced the most chatter around all of these movies and on Twitter Birdman was mentioned the most, which drove it to the top spot overall. Boyhood was a close second in mentions in both blogs and online news (only coming in less than 200 mentions behind Selma on news sites), but was fourth in Twitter mentions. As well, American Sniper was talked about a lot through Twitter and forums, but not nearly as much in blogs and news.
We also looked at mentions of these films in terms of when they were mentioned over the past year. It’s interesting here to note that Birdman seemed to have been generating conversations over the entire year despite the fact that it didn’t get a full theatrical release until the late summer of 2014. Most of the other films that were nominated in this category had releases towards the end of the year, so we didn’t see large spikes in conversations about them until around December and then again in January when the Golden Globes happened.
Lastly, we looked at the sentiment around each of the 8 nominations. While each movie was talked about positively, The Grand Budapest hotel had the most positive talk around it with 71%. The next closest film in terms of positive mentions was Boyhood with 52% of it’s mentions being scored positively and Selma coming in third with 48% positive mentions.
While all of the movies nominated for Best Picture were great in their own right, there can be only one winner of the Oscar. Looking at this data above it’s still hard to tell which one the social world liked the best, but we’re going to make our prediction for a winner to be Selma. Selma was talked about the most across most social media channels and also had a great positive sentiment score.
Which film do you think is going to take home the Oscar this Sunday? And is your choice based on the data above or just your own instinct to pick a great film. Let us know in the comments.
We’ll be back next week with a full report about how the Oscars plays out in social media, so come back to check that out.