Posts Tagged ‘mitt romney’

Even In Social The US Election Is A Close Call

Today is a very important day to the people of the United States of America. It’s election day. A day that has been four years in the making. As I sat down to collect some social data around the two candidates last night I saw many a pundit on television talk about how the race was looking a little too close to call. Well, social data seems to be telling that same story.

Using MAP, our social media monitoring and analytics platform, I delved into social conversations since October first around the election to try and make a prediction on a winner based on online chatter. The problem is, it appears to be a very close race for the presidency. Looking for mentions of Obama or Democrat versus Romeny or Republican we can see that they’re neck and neck. In terms of overall mentions, Obama and the Democrats lead the way with just 51% of the share of voice. Romeny and the Republicans were very close though with the other 49%.

Even when I looked at those social mentions trended out over time we can see they’ve been very close for the last month and a bit. We can see that during the debates (which are the three large spikes we can see in the graph below) talk of Romney and the Republicans seemed to be the slight leader. However, for the past week and a half, Obama and the Democrats seemed to have gotten more talk.

However, as most of us have learned at some point in our lives, just because people are talking about you doesn’t mean they’re saying good things. So, I dug a bit deeper into each side of the election.

First I looked at Romney and the Republicans. Since October 1st I found 30.9 million mentions of them. 514,970 blog posts, 842,498 online news articles, 1,521,967 forum postings and 28,035,332 tweets. The top three states that were talking about him were California (11.56%), New York (10.37%) and Texas (7.1%). I also found that Romney and the Republicans have a 73% favourable rating. That came from having 27% negative talk and 24% positive talk.

I then looked at the same stats around Obama and the Democrats. They had a slight lead when it came to mentions with 32.7 million mentions. There were 626,307 blog posts, 992,778 online news articles, 1,933,088 forum postings and 29,236,730 tweets. Then, I found that the top three states talking about Obama and the Democrats were the exact same as their opponents; California (11.52%), New York (9.11%) and Texas (8.55%). And then came my big surprise. Obama and the Democrats were actually slightly behind in terms of sentiment. Their overall favourability rating was a 72%, coming in 1% behind Romney and the Republicans. While Obama matched him with 24% positive talk, the had slightly more negative talk with 28%.

Both the buzzgraphs and the word clouds around each side of the election doesn’t reveal a whole lot more either. They are both filled with election buzz words and are incredibly similar.

Like I said at the beginning of this post, this election may be a little too close to call. I would have liked to predict a winner to end this post, but even after examining the data, I’m having a hard time declaring an actual winner. Anything I said at this point would likely come from my own personal bias, so I won’t get into it.

We’ll just have to wait and see how this day plays out. I’m sticking with the pundits in saying that this race is way too close to call.

Who do you think is going to win? Can you make the call from looking at our data? Leave us a comment and let us know.

Also, be sure follow us on Twitter as we’ll be posting some interesting election social stats throughout the day.

The Good and Bad Sides of Social Politics

At times, the U.S. presidential election has been called a social media battle. This might be somewhat over the top but the digital landscape, in one way or another, has definitely become a battlefield as candidates strive to leverage social media to give themselves an edge in connecting with voters.

This is similar to 2008 president election between Barack Obama and John McCain. I don’t have to remind you about the much-maligned McCainSpace, which was described as a MySpace knock-off, which struggled against Obama’s well-oiled social media machine on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube.

The obvious message for PR, advertising and digital practitioners is they have to look to the U.S. election to not only see how powerful social media can be but also to learn from how it can be used incorrectly.

At the end of the day, the way that Obama used social media during the 2008 campaign is a powerful case study into social media campaigning at its best.

While the social media activity is through the roof, “the 47% problem” that hammered Mitt Romney recently is proof that social media can turn a campaign on its head.

For those of you may have missed it, a video was disseminated via social media in which during a closed door speech, Romney uttered words that were seen as him writing off 47% of the voting population.

This post isn’t about a political agenda or the validity of the video, it is meant to demonstrate that in 2012, social media is playing an important role in the most vital of national decision-making. It is a fascinating development in politics and sociology.

What happens between now and the election in November will no doubt be played out on social media. It’s up to all marketers and communication experts to pay attention, and learn from the good and the bad.

More: For insight into the tools and strategies used by Obama during his campaign, check out Barack 2.0.

More Talk About Paul Ryan

On Monday, Mark wrote here about Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s choice for his running mate and Vice President. When the announcement hit on Saturday, tweets were averaging 3,746 per minute. Since then, the talk has died down a bit, but Ryan is still a popular topic across the social sphere. Using MAP, our social media monitoring and analytics software, I took a look at the talk about Paul Ryan.

I did a search for the name “Paul Ryan” and his new Twitter handle “@PaulRyanVP” over the past week. I understand that some people are referring to him by just his last name, but with Ryan being such a common name I didn’t want to taint my results. In the past week I found over 1 million conversations about Paul Ryan. There were 35,709 blog posts, 46,554 online news articles, 69,627 forum postings and 940,365 tweets.

Trending that data out over time, we can see that Ryan, as a Representative of Wisconsin, was barely a topic of converstaion before Saturday. But on Saturday, when Romney announced him as his VP, talk skyrocketed. Since then, as I noted above, the Ryan chatter has somewhat calmed down but he still remains a big topic of conversation.

Of course, most of this talk was coming from the United States. The USA accounted for 83.1% of all the Paul Ryan talk. Of course other countries talked and reported on the new potential Vice President, but the country wit the second most mentions of Ryan, Canada, only made up 2.4% of all the talk.

Surprisingly, the majority of conversation about Ryan came out in a neutral position. Usually, when politics are involved, emotions and sentiment tend to get a bit more intense. However, in this case, only 18% of the conversation was rated negative and only 29% positive.

And just what were people talking about? Well, both our word cloud and buzzgraph show that Romney, Ryan’s running mate, is right there in the center of all the talk as well. We can also see that Ryan being named the “vice” “presidential” “candidate” is still a hot topic around him. As well, we see that “Obama”, who Romney and Ryan are running against, seems to be brought up a lot in conversation as well.

Lastly, I looked at the most retweeted tweets about Paul Ryan. The most RT’d was Mitt Romney announcing Ryan as his VP candidate, and the third most RT’d was Ryan making the announcement on his own account. However, the second, fourth, and fifth most RT’d tweets were not as pro-Ryan as the others. The fourth was actually a tweet that came from Obama’s Twitter account.

Paul Ryan Becomes the Talk of the Digital Town

It didn’t take long for social media to discover its newest political superstar.

Soon after U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s announcement that Paul Ryan will be his running mate, the name and account (@PaulRyanVP) blew up in popularity.

It seemed this was all the twitterverse was talking about. About 3,746 relevant tweets were being published every minute.

This goes beyond aimless conjecture. Ryan has not only gained a following within social media, but he has garnered considerable public support.

Perhaps the Republican Party has learned how to build online buzz after it was outflanked by Barack Obama’s use of social media during the 2008 presidential campaign.

The interesting part is while Obama easily overshadows Romney when it comes to online audiences, Ryan has a decisive edge on current U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (aka @joebiden).

I know what you’re all thinking, this might have played into Ryan’s selection as a way to counteract Obama’s huge digital presence with a young people.

Ryan and the rest of the GOP have to realize they will be under an even greater microscope. One misstep will be exaggerated to great lengths throughout social media.

In other words, Ryan’s selection is a shrewd move with significant online potential, but it could also backfire.

Time will tell on this, but the move definitely generated a lot of talk within the social media landscape as the campaign starts to heat up.