Posts Tagged ‘romney’

Post-Elections Social Chatter Shows Obama Dominating The Social Space

Sheldon Levine took a look at the social data on the day of the US elections and came to the conclusion that the race was too close to call. Now it’s two days after Barack Obama’s win, so what does the social sphere look like now?

When we compared “Barack Obama” OR “Obama” and “Mitt Romney” OR “Romney” this is what we found in share of voice:

As we can see, Obama dominated the Share of Voice with 68 per cent of the mentions.

Share of Voice doesn’t mean that it’s all positive or negative. That just means mentions. When I looked at the Sentiment Comparison, Obama was ahead but not by much.

 

Obama is more popular than Romney two days after the election but hasn’t pulled away from Romney in terms of sentiment. If you recall, Sheldon found that the sentiment for the two men were the same prior to the election.

Obama pulls ahead on Twitter with a stunning 73 per cent Share of Voice over Romney’s 27 per cent.

But let’s look at what people are saying by checking out their Word Clouds and Buzz Graphs.

Obama:

Romney:

There isn’t a huge difference in the words use when talking about the two men but what we can conclude from this overview is that while Obama is dominating the social space and will for the next four years, his sentiment isn’t that different from Romney. Could it be because while people gave him another four years, they’re hesitant to fully endorse him? He does have to deal with the economy, healthcare and the Republicans who are very, very sad and angry right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even In Social The US Election Is A Close Call

Today is a very important day to the people of the United States of America. It’s election day. A day that has been four years in the making. As I sat down to collect some social data around the two candidates last night I saw many a pundit on television talk about how the race was looking a little too close to call. Well, social data seems to be telling that same story.

Using MAP, our social media monitoring and analytics platform, I delved into social conversations since October first around the election to try and make a prediction on a winner based on online chatter. The problem is, it appears to be a very close race for the presidency. Looking for mentions of Obama or Democrat versus Romeny or Republican we can see that they’re neck and neck. In terms of overall mentions, Obama and the Democrats lead the way with just 51% of the share of voice. Romeny and the Republicans were very close though with the other 49%.

Even when I looked at those social mentions trended out over time we can see they’ve been very close for the last month and a bit. We can see that during the debates (which are the three large spikes we can see in the graph below) talk of Romney and the Republicans seemed to be the slight leader. However, for the past week and a half, Obama and the Democrats seemed to have gotten more talk.

However, as most of us have learned at some point in our lives, just because people are talking about you doesn’t mean they’re saying good things. So, I dug a bit deeper into each side of the election.

First I looked at Romney and the Republicans. Since October 1st I found 30.9 million mentions of them. 514,970 blog posts, 842,498 online news articles, 1,521,967 forum postings and 28,035,332 tweets. The top three states that were talking about him were California (11.56%), New York (10.37%) and Texas (7.1%). I also found that Romney and the Republicans have a 73% favourable rating. That came from having 27% negative talk and 24% positive talk.

I then looked at the same stats around Obama and the Democrats. They had a slight lead when it came to mentions with 32.7 million mentions. There were 626,307 blog posts, 992,778 online news articles, 1,933,088 forum postings and 29,236,730 tweets. Then, I found that the top three states talking about Obama and the Democrats were the exact same as their opponents; California (11.52%), New York (9.11%) and Texas (8.55%). And then came my big surprise. Obama and the Democrats were actually slightly behind in terms of sentiment. Their overall favourability rating was a 72%, coming in 1% behind Romney and the Republicans. While Obama matched him with 24% positive talk, the had slightly more negative talk with 28%.

Both the buzzgraphs and the word clouds around each side of the election doesn’t reveal a whole lot more either. They are both filled with election buzz words and are incredibly similar.

Like I said at the beginning of this post, this election may be a little too close to call. I would have liked to predict a winner to end this post, but even after examining the data, I’m having a hard time declaring an actual winner. Anything I said at this point would likely come from my own personal bias, so I won’t get into it.

We’ll just have to wait and see how this day plays out. I’m sticking with the pundits in saying that this race is way too close to call.

Who do you think is going to win? Can you make the call from looking at our data? Leave us a comment and let us know.

Also, be sure follow us on Twitter as we’ll be posting some interesting election social stats throughout the day.

Who won the Presidential Debates and what do Canadians think? (Updated)

There have been three US Presidential debates. There have been women in binders, horses and bayonets and some rather confusing comments about foreign policy.

The big question is, who won? Some polls say Romney, some say Obama but let’s see what the social space said.

We looked at the data from September 1 to today (53 days) and it looks like Obama took the prize but barely, scraping by with 51 per cent of share of voice. Search terms included “win,” “won,” “debate” and the candidates’ names.

When we break it down, you can see that in some social spaces such as blog and forums, both men tied. Obama still had the small lead in News and on Twitter.

In the Popularity Comparison over the last 53 days, we can see the spikes  – October 4 and 18 – the days after the first two debates and October 22, the day of the third debate. Once again, the race was tight, but you can see that Romney won the first debate, Obama took the second debate and the third debate is too close to call.

When we look at just Twitter, the winner is more obvious:

It’s clear that on Twitter, Obama won the second and third debates. That’s a good sign for Obama supporters. Now we just wait and see what happens next month. While we wait, why not check out this video on the Electoral College:

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Mark Blevis took a look at what Canadians thought about the debate.

Canadian political enthusiasts love their US political theatre. The digitally-engaged among us have actively contributed to the online chatter surrounding the three US Presidential debates. Our digits have been going digital, sharing quips, thoughts and quotes while glued to the tube.

How busy have we been?

We’ve issued 420,498 debate-related tweets, collectively, on the dates of the three debates. And that traffic offers some very interesting insight.

The first discovery that jumped out at me is Canadians had more to say about the second debate (153,070 tweets) than either of the other two (136,614 and 128,814 respectively). It’s worth noting (and I’m relying on my memory here) that I tracked roughly 114,000 election-related tweets on May 2, 2011, the date of Canada’s last general vote.

Note the swell on October 11 coincides with the debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan.

This differs from the collective international Twitter traffic which favoured the first debate (11.2 million tweets) over the second (10 million) and third (7 million).

Last night, a majority of participants came and went in a single tweet (81%) — roughly 17% issued 2-4 tweets and 2% issued 5-7 tweets. The most engaged (those who issued 8 or more tweets) were statistically insignificant.

Canadians mentioned Mitt Romney more often than Barack Obama on all three debate days.

 

Romney’s popularity in Canadian tweets might have a lot to do with him providing some of the most tweetable moments. The most popular theme for Canadians during the first debate was the Governor’s plan to cut funding to PBS (evidenced in the popularity of tweets mentioning Big Bird and Sesame Street). In the second debate it was his “binders full of women.” The most tweeted theme in the third debate was Obama’s lessons to Mitt Romney on the modern military (evidenced in terms such as horses, bayonets and fewer).

Both candidates had a roughly 60/40 split of tweets issued by men and women respectively. If there’s enough interest, I can prepare follow-up analysis which compares popular themes based on gender.

On average, Ontario issued the greatest number of debate-related tweets (58%) followed by BC (12%), Québec (11%) and Alberta (9%). The remaining provinces and territories combined for 10% of Canadian tweets about the debate.

A cursory (emphasis on cursory) analysis of sentiment revealed that, overall, Canadians favoured Barack Obama. The math is a bit confusing at first glance so let me explain it this way. On average, 6% of all mentions of President Obama had a positive tone and slightly fewer than 11% had a negative tone. Contrast that with Mitt Romney whose averages were just under 5% positive and nearly 13% negative. I need to emphasize that a deeper dive into context, language and tone would be necessary to arrive at more credible/meaningful sentiment analysis. I just don’t think I’ll have the time to review over 400,000 tweets anytime soon.

 

Analysis performed using Marketwire/Sysomos MAP.

“Binders Full Of Women” Quote Takes Off In Public Discourse

One thing that has been great about the Internet and specifically social media during the United States Presidential debates is that it’s given a voice to the everyday person to raise concern over what they think is an important issue spoke about. In the past the pundits and reporters would tell the world what they thought were the best and worst things that a candidate said during a debate, but that didn’t always reflect what the public was thinking. However, the common person really only got the chance to discuss their thoughts with the their close friends, family and coworkers.

Now, with the rise of public voice through real-time social media, the world can instantly know what’s resonating with the people watching these debates. And it has. At the first Presidential debate a few weeks ago, Romney made a comment about Big Bird and taking funding away from PBS, the channel that produces and broadcasts the beloved Sesame Street, and the Internet blew up making comments and memes about this. Well, this phenomenon has happened again after Tuesday night’s second Presidential debate over a comment about having “binders full of women.”

For a little context, the candidates were talking about the equality of women in the workplace. During this part of the debate President Obama talked about giving equal pay and jobs to women. When asked about women he works with, Romney made a quick comment that he had “binders full of women’s resumes” for positions, but as it was pointed out, he didn’t actually have a lot of women working for him. And with that, the idea of “binders full of women” took off.

Using MAP, our social media monitoring and analysis platform, I looked at how the “binders full of women” took off. Since the comment was made on Tuesday night I was able to find over 200,000 mentions of it through social channels. There were 2,877 blog posts, 4,400 online news articles, 4,221 forum postings  and 192,495 tweets making reference to it.

Looking at thos numbers spread out over time we can see that the statement really resonated with people. Tuesday, the night it was said, saw a lot of talk about the comment. But it was really the next day that it spread like wildfire. People were making both serious and funny comments about Romeny’s statement (as I’ll show you soon). And it appears to still be going strong today, even though it’s still early in the day.

The public took Romney’s comment about “binders full of women” as an opportunity to talk seriously about what they think of the candidate and to make jokes. When I looked at the most RT’d tweets talking about “binders full of women” most of them were of a very serious nature. They talked about how the candidate never said much about sticking up for equal pay and jobs for women and how that’s a serious issue for a lot of women (and men) voters. Out of the six most RT’d tweets I found that two of the were from Obama’s camp and another two were from Big Bird, who seems to be very anti-Romney since the last debate. There was also a very serious one from film maker Michael Moore who said “On November 6th, will find out just how many binders of women there are,” meaning that he feels women won’t stand for voting for him if he doesn’t believe in giving them equal rights.

On the flip side though, there were also quite a few jokes being made about the statement as well. More so, as it happens on then internet these days, the statement became an instant classic meme. All day yesterday different memes were being floated around the internet using the “binders full of women” statement. Here’s just a few of the funny ones I found:

While in the past the theme of that part of the debate would have most likely been talked about after the fact. But thanks to the rise of public voice and social media, we’re able to see (at a very amplified rate] some of the actual statements that resonate with people, whether they be good, bad, or funny.